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	<title>Option Strangle Magic &#187; How To Trade Options</title>
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	<link>http://optionstrangle.net</link>
	<description>Balancing out-of-the-money options for potential large gain</description>
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		<title>Online Options Trading â Portfolio Measures and Trade Performance Metrics</title>
		<link>http://optionstrangle.net/online-options-trading-a%c2%80%c2%93-portfolio-measures-and-trade-performance-metrics</link>
		<comments>http://optionstrangle.net/online-options-trading-a%c2%80%c2%93-portfolio-measures-and-trade-performance-metrics#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 06 Jan 2010 21:52:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Option Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Asset Allocation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[How To Trade Options]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Online Options Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Options Trading Strategies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Portfolio Management]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock Option Trading]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[The Reward of Profit and the Risk of Losses for retail option trading needs to be managed at 2 related levels of performance: Portfolio and Trade Specific.At the Portfolio level for online options trading, there are 3 types of Targets that must be set, even before you trade.Maximum Return Target: complete achievement of the âidealâ [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Reward of Profit and the Risk of Losses for retail option trading needs to be managed at 2 related levels of performance: Portfolio and Trade Specific.At the Portfolio level for online options trading, there are 3 types of Targets that must be set, even before you trade.Maximum Return Target: complete achievement of the âidealâ measure. Dream of the âidealâ that stretches you beyond what is practical. For example, earn 2-3 times your monthly living expenses with the monthly trading profit. This is to stretch your imagination well beyond mediocrity. Even if you fail, you just might end up with more than your original target.Minimum Return Target: the lowest acceptable measure, achievable under most conditions, excluding a catastrophic market event. Use the historical annualized return of the S&amp;P 500 between 10%-12% (prior to the 2008 financial pandemic), as the lowest acceptable boundary.Â  The S&amp;P 500 being a widely accepted benchmark for trading equities is adequate to base the minimum target off, though your portfolio needs to be profitable â being ahead of the $SPX in negative territory does not count.Â  Below the historical annualized return range of 10%â12%, is the 3 Month T-Bill, presently near zero.Â  While the T-bill theoretically represents an âabsolutelyâ zero risk investment, even the safest investments will still carry a residual amount of risk no matter how small that risk is.Â  The point is this.Â  You got into options and all that Greek terminology, not to make salads; but to beat the performance of equities as an asset class.Â  If your portfolio&#8217;s return is between what is near zero-risk and 10%â12% per annum, you are just delaying reaching a point of pain that marks failure in grasping the base-line ability to control risks.Â  If the returns of your portfolio are between 0%â12% and you plan to continue trading options, processes within your trading process will need to be reâengineered.&#8221;Halt Trade&#8221; Target: cumulative losses reach an absolute amount below the Minimum Return, making it necessary to stop trading altogether for a stated period.Â  10% of [(60% x Cash Balance at the start of the year); or Net Liquidating Value].Â  Example, for a $50,000 trading account, 10% x (60% x $50,000) = $3,000 of losses in total, is the absolute amount to halt trading.Â  Why 10%? Blowing up your self-funded capital is final.Â  There is no bail out package, as a home options trading business does not have access to bank loans; or, shareholdersâ equity to finance your personal trades.Now, drilling down to Trade Specific performance measures.Even before you calculate the metrics, characteristically, what makes for a consistently managed portfolio are these traits: </p>
<p>Where can I see this step up function in a consistently profitable portfolio, with these portfolio measures and trade performance metrics? Follow the link below, entitled âConsistent Resultsâ to see a model retail option traderâs portfolio that shows these traits.Moving onto the hard metrics.Â  Thereâs 2 ways to count the Return on your trading capital. </p>
<p>In both cases, you can minus the Total Cost of Commissions from Total Profit, to get a Total Net Profit number.Â  The, divide the Total Net Profit by the Start of Year Cash Balance; or, Net Liquidating Value.Â  Net Liquidating Value is how much your entire trading account is worth, which is equal to Total Cash + Options Value + Stocks Value + Commodities Value + Bonds Value. The Start of Year Cash Balance is straightforward â it is the money in the account at the beginning of that trading year. Cash increases when you are short securities; but, cash decreases, as you get long on securities.To review your performance, calculate these metrics using the Profit (wins) and Loss (losers) from your account: </p>
<p>The Average Win divided by the Average Loss measures how RESPONSIVE you are in taking profits and cutting losses.Combine the Accuracy ratio with the Responsiveness ratio to get your Performance Ratio.Performance Ratio = (Win/Loss Probability) x (Average Win / Average Loss).Â  Always aim to maintain the Performance Ratio above 1.00. Why?Â  The commonly known money management rule is to allocate 2%-5% of (60% x Net Liquidating Value of the account) per trade.Â  What is not commonly practiced is the discipline of moderating a +/- 1% in trade allocation between the 2%-5% allocation. </p>
<p>This is how to achieve a ladder effect in stepping up profits and stepping down losses. This mechanism of stepping up/down is an indispensable tool for rewarding profit and to discipline the risk of losses.Â  It forces you to improve both ACCURACY and RESPONSIVENESS before raising your position size. </p>
<p>Where can I learn more about portfolio measures and trade performance metrics as part of a total trading system? Follow the link below, for 55 hours of video-based learning of online options trading from home. </p>
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		<title>How to Trade Options &#8211; Book Review &#8211; Lawrence G. McMillan, McMillan on Options</title>
		<link>http://optionstrangle.net/how-to-trade-options-book-review-lawrence-g-mcmillan-mcmillan-on-options</link>
		<comments>http://optionstrangle.net/how-to-trade-options-book-review-lawrence-g-mcmillan-mcmillan-on-options#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 02 Dec 2009 23:09:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Option Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[How To Trade Options]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Implied Volatility]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Intermarket]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Larry Mcmillan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Options Trading Strategies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Volatility]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Larry McMillan is an iconic Hercules of the options world.  Few option titans have the depth and range of grounded insights to devote 630+ pages to a publication.  Do not be overwhelmed by what initially appears as a titanic chronicle.McMillan commits extensive effort to clarify the proper use of misused trading terms.  He rectifies inaccurate [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Larry McMillan is an iconic Hercules of the options world.  Few option titans have the depth and range of grounded insights to devote 630+ pages to a publication.  Do not be overwhelmed by what initially appears as a titanic chronicle.McMillan commits extensive effort to clarify the proper use of misused trading terms.  He rectifies inaccurate practices by applying the mechanics of the math that is material and helps you visualize this with graphically rich worked examples.  Every chapter has its own summary, emphasizing specific techniques to refine your own trading methods.There are adequate reader reviews on Amazon and Google Book Search, to help you decide if you will get the book. For those who have just started or are about to read the book, I’ve summarized the core concepts in the larger and essential chapters to help you get through them quicker.The number on the right of the title of the chapter is the number of pages contained within that chapter. It is not the page number.  The percentages represent how much each chapter makes up of the 630 pages in total, excluding appendices.1  Option History, Definitions, and Terms.  44, 6.98%.2  An Overview of Option Strategies.  60, 9.52%.3  The Versatile Option.  82, 13.02%.4  The Predictive Power of Options.  164, 26.03%.5  Trading Systems and Strategies.  90, 14.29%.6  Trading Volatility and Other Theoretical Approaches.  128, 20.32%.7  Other Important Considerations.  48, 7.62%.Focus on chapters 4, 5 and 6, which makes up about 61% of the book. These chapters are relevant for practical trading purposes.  Here are the key points for these focus chapters, which I’m summarizing from a retail option trader’s perspective. 4 The Predictive Power of Options. Within this chapter, focus on these sections: Using Stock Option Volume as an Indicator, Implied Volatility Can Predict a Change of Trend and The Put–Call Ratio.  Here, you are taught to spot trading opportunities where the daily total option volume is more than double the average option volume. For highly liquid Index products, a higher ratio is required.  There are filters to validate the use of volume speculation.  These filters include ruling out the impact of arbitrage, total volume concentrated in too few strikes that are not identifiable as block trades, spread trades concentrated in just two series of strikes and over concentration of daily volume in ITM strikes that does not have the percentage leverage of ATM/OTM strikes.The section on Implied Volatility evaluates the treatment of IV as it moves between its expected ranges towards extreme boundaries.  IV Mean Reversion is involved. Implied Volatility must leave from where it is currently trading at (be it IV for ITM, ATM or OTM strikes), to converge at zero on expiration date.  Though, price can go anywhere (up, down or stay flat).  The boundary analysis of IV is applied to covered call writing, index options, the seasonality of volatility and trading volatility directly using the VIX.  Other volatility companion measures should be used in combination with the VIX, namely the VXO, QQV and VXN as sentiment gauges.McMillan differentiates between a “standard” put-call ratio versus the “dollar-weighted” put-call ratio. There is further refinement on the applicability of specific ratios to equity only put-call ratios, distinct from index put-call ratios and futures put-call ratios.  Weighted ratios accentuate the extremities of overbought/oversold conditions when sentiment has reached its peak or valley to signal impending changes, which is overlooked in using a standard ratio that is not weighted.  Sentiment needs to be sensitized with the weightage.5 Trading Systems and Strategies. Pay attention to these sections, which make up about 68% of the chapter: Intermarket Spreads and Other Seasonal Tendencies. The section covers European options that do trade at a discount to parity, spread differentials between heating oil futures and unleaded gas futures, small-cap outperformance with the January effect, spread differentials between gold stocks versus the price of gold, spread differentials between oil stocks versus the price of oil, the relationship between the utilities sector and 30-year bonds, other relationships between sector indexes/futures and Pairs Trading.  There is convergence and divergence at work in these specific products and asset classes identified. For a unique set of relationships, McMillan clearly explains why some relationships must be treated as cross-correlated dependencies versus independent treatment of non-correlated mutually exclusive events. There is also clarity on how to design your trading system to collectively control the diversification of risks across these distinct linear relationships and inverse interplays.The section on Other Seasonal Tendencies challenges August as a dull month with muted volatility in the pits, alerts you to September-October as months to be long puts but short futures and identifies cyclical periods of rallies in late October and late January. McMillan confronts the conventional reasons for seasonal nuances. For example, the traditional leave periods of floor traders/market makers/institutions who move 85+% of exchange volume does not dampen volatility in the pits and there is no slack during the Labour Day holiday period. He blends the business cycle in with the use of seasonality. For example, companies that are stock components of the S&amp;P 500 with cash rich balance sheets will need to periodically slim down their current asset holdings and redeploy cash into longer-term investments. Firms must maximize shareholder’s equity and cannot just sit on cash.  McMillan explains when and how to position your trades in view of the common market practice of “window dressing”, in context of cash flow contraction and the velocity of money during these periods of fiscal adjustments to the books of corporations.6 Trading Volatility and Other Theoretical Approaches.  In brief, the themes covered are: volatility’s role in pricing options, controlling directional risk with delta neutral trading, predicting volatility based on forecasting IV from its current percentile, comparing historical and implied volatility to confirm trading ranges in percentile terms, trading implied volatility recognizing the trade off between being short premium versus long decay, reaffirming the relevance of the Black Scholes model with application of the Greeks, aligning a spread’s strike construction for trading the volatility skew, the aggressive calendar spread that expires within 10 days versus conventional inter-month calendars, using probability and statistics in volatility trading to rank the risk to reward profile of trades and expected return metrics to measure risk per $1 allocated.Of all the focus chapters, Chapter 6 is the heaviest on the use of numerical reasoning. Though, is not beyond anyone who is comfortable with Statistics 101.To complete the review, here’s the background of the author.  Larry is the President of McMillan Analysis Corporation, founded in 1991.  From 1982 to 1989, he headed up the Equity Arbitrage Department at Thomson McKinnon Securities, Inc. He traded the firm&#8217;s own money primarily in advanced option spreads and risk arbitrage strategies.  Between 1989-90, he was in charge of the Proprietary Option Trading Department at Prudential-Bache Securities. He traded primarily convertible Euro-bonds and Japanese warrant arbitrage strategies.  Prior to these roles, he was the retail option strategist at Thomson McKinnon from 1976 to 1980, and traded the firm&#8217;s proprietary account beginning in 1980.  He initially worked at Bell Telephone Laboratories from 1972 to 1976.  He holds an M.S. in applied mathematics and computer science.In conclusion, McMillan on Options exposes you to the full gamut of how to trade options and the essential methods required to build a sustainable and consistent trading system. Intermarket spreading and Implied Volatility forecasting are clearly the cornerstones of a solid trading system.This is not a criticism of the book but a personal observation. To complete the construction of a total trading system requires the metrics for portfolio diagnostics. I have written a separate article, entitled “Book Review -  Kenneth L. Grant, Trading Risk” that deals with portfolio management. </p>
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		<title>Options Trading Strategies â Intermarket Analysis in Brief for Retail Asset Allocation</title>
		<link>http://optionstrangle.net/options-trading-strategies-a%c2%80%c2%93-intermarket-analysis-in-brief-for-retail-asset-allocation</link>
		<comments>http://optionstrangle.net/options-trading-strategies-a%c2%80%c2%93-intermarket-analysis-in-brief-for-retail-asset-allocation#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 Dec 2009 14:17:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Option Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Asset Allocation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[How To Trade Options]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Intermarket Analysis.intermarket]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Options Trading Strategies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Portfolio Management]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock Option Trading]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[If you are trading a mix of Verticals, Calendars and Iron Condors across highly liquid indexes like the DJX, DIA, MNX, QQQQ, RUT, SMH, SPY and XSP, is your trading risk adequately diversified? No.In choosing the MNX, QQQQ, SMH, SPY and XSP, there is a duplication of stock components in these Indexes: for example, AMAT [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>If you are trading a mix of Verticals, Calendars and Iron Condors across highly liquid indexes like the DJX, DIA, MNX, QQQQ, RUT, SMH, SPY and XSP, is your trading risk adequately diversified? No.In choosing the MNX, QQQQ, SMH, SPY and XSP, there is a duplication of stock components in these Indexes: for example, AMAT (Applied Materials) is a component of all 5 Indexes.Â  Bear in mind the MNX and the QQQQ are both smaller versions of the Nasdaq100 Index, the only difference being the MNX is an European styled cash settled Index and the cubes (QQQQ) is an American style stock settled Index.Â  Another example, Apple (AAPL) is a component of the MNX/QQQQ and SPY/XSP &#8211; both the SPY and the XSP track the S&amp;P 500, the SPY is American style stock settled and the XSP is European style cash settled.Â  Duplication is not diversification.Â  Even if you allocated capital to the smaller versions of the Dow: DJX, the European style cash settled version of the DIA which is the American style stock settled version.Â  Moreover, if you extended capital allocation to trade the RUT, thinking you are diversifying into small-cap stocks and away from large-caps, you just sunk more of your trading capital into equities.Â  Again, you cannot achieve diversification by adding more capital in the same asset class.Â  You need to learn how to trade options without concentration risk in stocks.Â  Do not confuse asset category (market capitalization) with asset class.This is where there is a need to understand Intermarket relationships.Â  Intermarket analysis requires the simultaneous analysis of 4 main Asset Classes: Currencies (U.S. Dollar remains most liquid of all major traded currencies), Commodities, Bonds and Stocks.Â  Synchronizing the rotation of asset allocation within your own portfolio lies in getting a grip on how these four markets interrelate with each other.Hereâs the synopsis of the relationships.Â  Commodities lead bonds, bonds lead stocks and stocks lead commodities.Â  The cycle holds true at least in a normal inflationary/disinflationary environment.Â  Other than itself, Commodities affects 2 markets (Bonds and Stocks); effectively, impacting 3 out of the 4 Intermarket relationships.Â  Even if you do not trade Commodity ETFs as part of your portfolio, you need to track Commodities as a leading economic cycle indicator.Â  The futures/Mini Futures that you see on news headlines/trading screens are relevant only as daily gauges for stock market behaviour.Â  They are not a cycle indicator across Asset Classes.So, you may already understand the criteria to define a &#8220;normal&#8221; economic cycle for the Directional Relationships to behave &#8220;ideally&#8221; (see below); BUT, how do you determine which Asset Class is driving the cycle? In other words, at a given point in the Intermarket cycle, how do you determine which Asset Class has the DOMINANT Relative Strength to trade? Follow the link below for a video-based course, to learn how Relative Strength &#8211; a rotational algorithmic measure is used to replace conventional Fundamental Analysis, as an asset allocation technique.Moving on, hereâs the Business Cycle in brief.Â  Bonds lead stocks, to trend in the same direction â except during deflation when bonds rise and stocks fall.Â  On average bonds are 18 months ahead of stocks in rising to their peak or falling to their bottoms; thereafter, stocks follow in the same direction.Â  If bonds have not broken down yet, this extends the gains in the stock market, acting as support for prevailing stock market levels.Â  The real risk begins to build 5-7 months after the bond market peaks or bottoms, thereafter the next 6 months stocks accelerate in the direction bonds have set.Typically, commodities and bonds have an inverse relationship: as commodities rise, bonds falls but as commodities fall, bonds rise. Inflationary expectations affect bond prices. US Dollar movements which is tied into Monetary Policy changes affects commodity prices.Â  Commodities lead bonds 12â18 months in advance (it takes this long for Monetary Policy to come into effect) and 24â27 months before the economy fully absorbs the policy changes.Now, the relationship between commodities and stocks. Stocks tend to lead commodities. Commodities are a hedge against inflation, with price inflation and higher inflation expectations occurring towards the end of the business cycle.Money and company growth using credit (loans) takes time to make its way through the economic system, from making prices rise to raising expectations on inflation. Thus, commodities usually outperform at the end of the business cycle.Rising bond prices generally raise stock prices in recovery, with falling commodity prices confirming an economic expansion phase is in play. As the expansion matures and begins to decelerate, watch for bonds to turn down first (as interest rates rise), followed by stocks.Finally, it is after commodities outperform stocks and start turning down, this signals the end of an economic expansion with the probable start of activity decelerating, then slipping into an impending recession.Retail traders can keep reading about the economics of interâmarket analysis and asset diversification. Though, they will not solve these key issues, every option trader trading with USD $25-$50K or less, must deal with for retail asset allocation purposes: </p>
<p>&#8230; if you can afford to diversify &#8230; </p>
<p>Where can I learn how to trade options profitably using Intermarket analysis with retail asset allocation methods? Follow the link below, entitled âConsistent Resultsâ to see a profitable retail option traderâs portfolio that is set up to cycle in and cycle out of Intermarket relationships, between asset classes.Why is it possible? Iâm using optionable ETFs (Commodity, Currency, Emerging Market and REIT), as well as optionable broad based/sector Equity Indexes, to trade the volatilities of each respective asset class. I do not need to trade Commodities and Currencies directly.Â  Remember, volatility can be added to/reduced from the portfolio, as not all Asset Classes or Sectors or Individual Companies or Countries move up/down in value ALL at the same time; and/or, ALL at the same rate. </p>
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		<title>Options Trading Strategies &#8211; Book Review &#8211; Sheldon Natenberg, Option Volatility and Pricing</title>
		<link>http://optionstrangle.net/options-trading-strategies-book-review-sheldon-natenberg-option-volatility-and-pricing</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 30 Nov 2009 13:43:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Option Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[How To Trade Options]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Implied Volatility]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Option Pricing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Options Trading Strategies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sheldon Natenberg]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Volatility]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[As with most books on the topic of how to trade options, the amount of material to get through can be daunting. For example, with Sheldon Natenberg’s Option Volatility &#38; Pricing, it is about 418 pages to digest.  There are adequate reader reviews on Amazon and Google Book Search, to help you decide if you [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As with most books on the topic of how to trade options, the amount of material to get through can be daunting. For example, with Sheldon Natenberg’s Option Volatility &amp; Pricing, it is about 418 pages to digest.  There are adequate reader reviews on Amazon and Google Book Search, to help you decide if you will get the book. For those who have just started or are about to read the book, I’ve summarized the core concepts in the larger and essential chapters to help you get through them quicker.The number on the right of the title of the chapter is the number of pages contained within that chapter. It is not the page number.  The percentages represent how much each chapter makes up of the 418 pages in total, excluding appendices.1  The Language of Options.  12, 2.87%.2  Elementary Strategies.  22, 5.26%.3  Introduction to Theoretical Pricing Models.  16, 3.83%.4  Volatility.  30, 7.18%.5  Using an Option&#8217;s Theoretical Value.  14, 3.35%.6  Option Values and Changing Market Conditions.  32, 7.66%.7  Introduction to Spreading.  10, 2.39%.8  Volatility Spreads.  36, 8.61%.9  Risk Considerations.  26, 6.22%.10  Bull and Bear Spreads.  14, 3.35%.11  Option Arbitrage.  28, 6.70%.12  Early Exercise of American Options.  16, 3.83%.13  Hedging with Options.  16, 3.83%.14  Volatility Revisited.  28, 6.70%.15  Stock Index Futures and Options.  30, 7.18%.16  Intermarket Spreading.  22, 5.26%.17  Position Analysis.  32, 7.66%.18  Models and the Real World.  34, 8.13%.Focus on chapters 4, 6, 8, 9, 11, 14, 15, 17 and 18, which makes up about 66% of the book.  These chapters are relevant for practical trading purposes. Here are the key points for these focus chapters, which I’m summarizing from a retail option trader’s perspective.4  Volatility. Volatility as a measure of speed in context of price in/stability for a given product in a particular market.  Despite its shortcomings, the definition of volatility still defaults to these assumptions of the Black-Scholes Model: 1. Price changes of  a product remain random and cannot be engineered, making it impossible to predict price direction prior to its movement. 2. Percent changes in the product’s price are normally distributed.  3. As the product’s price percent changes are counted as continuously compounded, the product’s price on expiry will become lognormally distributed.  4. The lognormal distribution’s mean (mean reversion) is to be found in the product’s forward price.6  Option Values and Changing Market Conditions.  Use of Delta in its 3 equivalent forms: Rate of Change, Hedge Ratio &amp; Theoretical Equivalent of the  Position.  Treatment of Gamma as an option&#8217;s curvature to explain the opposite relationship of OTM/ITM strikes to the ATM strike having the highest Gamma. Dealing with the Theta-Gamma inverse relationship, as well as Theta being intertwined synthetically as long decay and short premium with Implied Volatility, as measured by Vega.8  Volatility Spreads. Emphasis is on the sensitivities of a Ratio Back Spread, Ratio Vertical Spread, Straddle/Strangle, Butterfly, Calendar, and Diagonal to Interest Rates, Dividends and the 4 Greeks with specific attention on the effects of Gamma and Vega.9  Risk Considerations. A sobering reminder to select spreads with the lowest aggregate risk spread versus the highest probability of profit.  Aggregate Risk as measured in terms of Delta (Directional Risk), Gamma (Curvature Risk), Theta (Decay/Premium Risk) and Vega (Volatility Risk).11  Option Arbitrage. Synthetic positions are explained in terms of manufacturing an equivalent risk profile of the original spread, using a mix of single options, other spreads and the underlying product. Clear caution that transforming trades into Conversions, Reversals and Adjustments are not risk-free; but, may raise the trade&#8217;s nearer-term risks even though the longer-term net risk is lowered.  There are material differences in the cash flows of being long options versus short options, arising from the Skew bias unique to a product and the interest rate built into Calls making them disparate against Puts.14  Volatility Revisited.  Different expiry cycles between near-term versus longer-term options creates a longer-term volatility average, a mean volatility.   When volatility rises above its mean, there is relative certainty that it will revert to its mean. Likewise, mean reversion is highly likely as volatility drops below its mean. Gyration around the mean is an identifiable characteristic. Discernible volatility traits make it essential to forecast volatility in 30 day periods: 30-60-90-120 days, give the typical term to be short credit spreads between 30-45 and long debit spreads between 90-120 days.  Reconciling Implied Volatility as a measure of consensus volatility of all buyer/sellers for a given product, with inconsistencies in Historical Volatility and predictive constraints of Future Volatility.15  Stock Index Futures and Options. Effective use of Indexing to remove single stock risk.  Distinct treatment of the risks for stock-settled Indexes (including impact of dividend/exercise) separate from cash-settled Indices (absent of dividend/exercise).  Explains logic for Theoretically Pricing the options on Stock Index Futures, in addition to pricing the Futures contract itself, to determine which is economically viable to trade &#8211; the Futures contract itself or the options on the Futures.17  Position Analysis.  A more robust method than just eye balling the Delta, Gamma, Vega and Theta of a position is to use the relevant Theoretical Pricing model (Bjerksund-Stensland, Black-Scholes, Binomial) to scenario test for changes in dates (daily/weekly) before expiration, % changes in Implied Volatility and price changes within and near +/- 1 Standard Deviation. These factors feeding the scenario tests, once graphed, reveal the relative ratios of Delta/Gamma/Vega/Theta risks in terms of their proportionality impacting the Theoretical Price of specific strikes making up the construction of a spread.18  Models and the Real World. Addresses the weaknesses of these core assumptions used in a traditional pricing model: 1. Markets are not frictionless: buying/selling an underlying contract has restrictions in terms of tax implications, limitation on funding and transaction costs. 2. Interest rates are variable, not constant over the option&#8217;s life. 3. Volatilty is variable, not constant over the options&#8217; life. 4. Trading is not continous 24/7 &#8211; there are exchange holidays resulting in gaps in price changes.  5. Volatility is linked to Theoretical Price of the underlying contract, not independent of it. 6. Percentage of price changes in an underlying contract does not result in a lognormal distribution  of underlying prices at distribution due to Skew &amp; Kurtosis.To conclude, reading these chapters is not academic. Understanding techniques discussed in the chapters must enable you to answer the following key questions.  In the total inventory of your trading account, if you are … </p>
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		<title>Options Trading Strategies &#8211; Book Review &#8211; Guy Cohen, The Bible of Options Strategies</title>
		<link>http://optionstrangle.net/options-trading-strategies-book-review-guy-cohen-the-bible-of-options-strategies</link>
		<comments>http://optionstrangle.net/options-trading-strategies-book-review-guy-cohen-the-bible-of-options-strategies#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 29 Nov 2009 21:16:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Option Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Credit Spreads]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Guy Cohen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[How To Trade Options]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Option Spreads]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Options Trading Strategies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock Option Trading]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Most trading literature on option strategies tend to lean towards mathematical formulas to define the construction of a spread.  Guy Cohen has chosen to use pictorial logic, even with the Greeks unique to a particular strategy, to piece together the legs of a spread with diagrams.Diagrams that connect with each other are a much more [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Most trading literature on option strategies tend to lean towards mathematical formulas to define the construction of a spread.  Guy Cohen has chosen to use pictorial logic, even with the Greeks unique to a particular strategy, to piece together the legs of a spread with diagrams.Diagrams that connect with each other are a much more intuitive way to learn for those less inclined to numerical formulas.  Still, the logic of the math remains robust and intact. The layout of the book makes it easy to navigate around the text.  In addition to strategies being listed by the chapter and page there is a reference to the strategy’s main category with sub-categories, which are: </p>
<p>Guy Cohen has extensive experience of both the US and UK derivatives and stock markets.  He specializes in trading and analytics applications ranging from real estate to derivatives and has developed comprehensive business, trading and training models, all expressly designed for maximum user-friendliness. There are adequate reader reviews on Amazon and Google Book Search, to help you decide if you will get the book. For those who have just started or are about to read the book, I’ve summarized the core concepts in the larger and essential chapters to help you get through them quicker.The number on the right of the title of the chapter is the number of pages contained within that chapter. It is not the page number.  The percentages represent how much each chapter makes up of the 302 pages in total, excluding appendices.1  The Four Basic Options Strategies.  20, 6.62%.2  Income strategies.  68, 22.52%.3  Vertical Spreads.  30, 9.93%.4  Volatility Strategies.  56, 18.54%.5  Sideways Strategies.  44, 14.57%.6  Leveraged Strategies.  20, 6.62%.7  Synthetic Strategies.  54, 17.88%.8  Taxation for Stock and Options Traders.  10, 3.31%.Focus on chapters 2, 4, 5 and 7, which makes up about 74% of the book. These chapters are relevant for practical trading purposes.  Here are the key points for these focus chapters, which I’m summarizing from a retail option trader’s perspective. Chapter 2: Income Strategies. These strategies construct spreads where part of the spread sells Theta as premium within a shorter term (typically 30-45 days), to collect income.  In its entirety the strategy may result in a Net Debit or Net Credit spread.  There are 13 types of spreads in this category: Covered Call, Short (Naked) Put, Bull Put Spread, Bear Call Spread, Long Iron Butterfly, Long Iron Condor, Covered Short Straddle, Covered Short Strangle, Calendar Call, Diagonal Call, Calendar Put, Diagonal Put and a Covered Put (a.k.a. Married Put).Chapter 4: Volatility Strategies. These strategies use spreads that are indifferent to price direction, so long as price explodes out of range.  For a given explosion in price, the volatility of the spread needs to rise for a Net Debit spread and fall for a Net Credit spread,.  There are 11 spread types are defined in this category: Straddle, Strangle, Strip, Strap, Guts, Short Call Butterfly, Short Put Butterfly, Short Call Condor, Short Put Condor, Short Iron Butterfly and Short Iron Condor.Chapter 5: Sideways Strategies. These strategies involve non-directional spreads, requiring price to drift within a confined range. As price remains range bound, the volatility of the spread needs to rise for a Net Debit spread and fall for a Net Credit spread.  There are 11 types of spreads in this category: Short Straddle, Short Strangle, Short Guts, Long Call Butterfly, Long Put Butterfly, Long Call Condor, Long Put Condor, Modified Call Butterfly, Modified Put Butterfly, Long Iron Butterfly and Long Iron Condor. Chapter 7: Synthetic Strategies. Synthetic strategies mimic the risk profile of a stock, futures or other option position by combining calls, puts with or without stock.  Though typically, most synthetic positions are either long or short stock.  If you have a 401K plan or employee stock purchase plan that is long stock, then it may make sense to consider synthetic strategies, as you are already long Delta.  There is unlimited risk for some synthetic spreads, regardless if the strategy involves stock or not.  There are disadvantages to using synthetics.  12 spread types are defined in this category: Collar, Synthetic Call, Synthetic Put, Long Call Synthetic Straddle, Long Put Synthetic Straddle, Short Call Synthetic Straddle, Short Put Synthetic Straddle, Long Synthetic Future, Short Synthetic Future, Long Combo, Short Combo and Long Box.From a retail option trader’s viewpoint, I prefer to establish positions without the use of stock.  Using stock synthetically in a position makes each trade more capital intensive than it needs to be.  Especially, if your trading account is below USD $50,000.  The use of stock in configuring these positions does not add material merit in controlling risk and there is no added monetary benefit in tying up available trading capital in a stock-dependent synthetic position that could otherwise be achieved without the use of stock.  As an options trader in the first place, you want as little to do with the stock itself as possible, other than to configure the required option position around the underlying product, which can be substituted with a cash-settled Index instead of a stock-settled Index.Out of a total of 56 strategies covered in the book, I have reduced the list down to 35 Limited Risk Spread types that do not need to include stock as part of its original construction.  Limited Risk means there is a cap to the maximum loss – “Capped Risk” is the term used in the book. This should always be the starting point of any strategy you choose to construct. Do not just look at the unlimited profit (Uncapped Reward) side of the strategy without realizing that there is an unlimited loss (Uncapped Risk) side to same strategy.Limited Risk Spreads with “Unlimited” Reward and their Directional outlook.1. Long Call.    Bullish.2. Long Put.    Bearish.    3. Put Ratio Backspread.    Bearish; reverse Bullish.4. Call Ratio Backspread.    Bullish; reverse Bearish.        5. Straddle.    Indifferent/~Neutral.6. Strangle.    Indifferent/~Neutral.7. Strip.    Bearish.8. Strap.    Bullish.    9. Guts.    Indifferent/~Neutral.    1-9 are Debit spreads: IV needs to rise.10. Bull Put Ladder.    Bearish.    10-11 are Credit spreads: IV needs to fall.11. Bear Call Ladder.    Bullish.    Limited Risk Spreads with Limited Reward and their Directional outlook.12. Bear Put Spread.    Bearish.13. Bull Call Spread.    Bullish.14. Long Call Calendar.    Bullish; Indifferent/~Neutral.15. Long Put Calendar.    Bullish; Indifferent/~Neutral.16. Long Call Butterfly.    Indifferent/~Neutral.17. Long Put Butterfly.    Indifferent/~Neutral.18. Long Box.    Indifferent/~Neutral.19. Long Call Condor.    Indifferent/~Neutral.20. Long Put Condor.    Indifferent/~Neutral.21. Long Iron Butterfly.    Indifferent/~Neutral.22. Long Iron Condor.    Indifferent/~Neutral.    12-22 are Debit spreads: IV needs to rise.23. Bear Call Spread.    Bearish.    23-35 are Credit spreads: IV needs to fall.24. Bull Put Spread.    Bullish.25. Short Iron Butterfly.    Indifferent/~Neutral.26. Short Iron Condor.    Indifferent/~Neutral.27. Diagonal Call.    Bearish.28. Diagonal Put.    Bullish.29. Modified Call Butterfly.    Bearish to ~Neutral.30. Modified Put Butterfly.    Bullish to ~Neutral.31. Short (Naked) Put.    Bullish.32. Short Call Butterfly.    Indifferent/~Neutral.33. Short Call Condor.    Indifferent/~Neutral.34. Short Put Butterfly.    Indifferent/~Neutral.35. Short Put Condor.    Indifferent/~Neutral.Other than the 35 Defined Risk Spreads that do not require stock as part of their original construction for entry, there are 6 Defined Risk spreads that need stock to configure their positions. The 6 positions that I have deliberately excluded from the list above are the Long Call Synthetic Straddle, Long Put Synthetic Straddle, Synthetic Call, Synthetic Put, Collar and Covered Call.In conclusion, for new to intermediate traders do not be overwhelmed by the 56 strategies in the book.  It’s entitled the “Bible of Options Strategies” for a reason. What is critical is to get a deep understanding of the Long Call, Long Put, Short Call, Short Put, Long Vertical Call/Put, Short Vertical Call/Put and the Long Calendar Call/Put. That is the 4 Basic Options Strategies, plus the Vertical and the Calendar – the only 2 strategies that floor traders define as true spreads. The other combinations are a mixture of the basics with or without stock. </p>
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		<title>Options Trading Strategies â Treat Implied Volatility of Calls Separate From the IV of Puts</title>
		<link>http://optionstrangle.net/options-trading-strategies-a%c2%80%c2%93-treat-implied-volatility-of-calls-separate-from-the-iv-of-puts</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 24 Nov 2009 21:31:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Option Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Calendar Spread]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Credit Spreads]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[How To Trade Options]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Implied Volatility]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Iron Condor]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Options Trading Strategies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock Option Trading]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[The Implied Volatility (IV) of Calls needs separate treatment from the IV of Puts. Also, for specific options trading strategies treat the IV of both Puts and Calls as a combined bundle.Each option at each strike implies its own individual percentage value of the underlying product&#8217;s future volatility. This makes it unique from any other [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Implied Volatility (IV) of Calls needs separate treatment from the IV of Puts. Also, for specific options trading strategies treat the IV of both Puts and Calls as a combined bundle.Each option at each strike implies its own individual percentage value of the underlying product&#8217;s future volatility. This makes it unique from any other option within the same chain of a given expiry month. The individuality of an option&#8217;s percentage value at each strike is what draws the &#8220;smile&#8221; in the IV&#8217;s Skew.So, while an ITM Call has a corresponding OTM Put sharing the same strike, conversely an ITM Put has an OTM Call counterpart at the same strike, the Call must be treated uniquely as a Call and the Put uniquely as a Put. The more ITM an option becomes, its intrinsic value becomes higher and its extrinsic value is lowered. Conversely, at the same strikes where an ITM Call (or Put) gets deeper In The Money, the corresponding Put (or Call) becomes further OTM. The more OTM an option becomes, its extrinsic value rises higher and its intrinsic value is lowered. Even with ATM options, where the Call&#8217;s Delta is exactly 0.50 and the Put also has a Delta of exactly 0.50, the Implied Volatility on either side of that same ATM strike is different.While Calls and Puts appear side-by-side for a given strike, they are not identical twins to simply trade places. Think of it this way, each option has its own Intrinsic-Extrinsic fingerprint that makes that Call or Put identifiable only to itself.The logic for treating the Implied Volatility of Calls separate from the IV of Puts becomes obvious in the construction of specific spread types. Let&#8217;s break down the components making up the following spreads. </p>
<p>Now, let&#8217;s compare the above spreads with these other types of spreads. </p>
<p>Clearly, there are more spreads that require the Implied Volatility to be differentiated between Calls versus Puts, compared to the use of a combined IV. So, in choosing a data provider of Implied Volatility, make sure you get the IV data of Calls that is set apart from the IV of Puts; as well as, data that combines the IV of Calls and Puts together. That means 3 sets of IV data in one service.We have just established the structural logic for decoupling the IV of Calls from the IV of Puts. How do you apply this to a trade? Here&#8217;s how. </p>
<p>Is there a working example of a consistently profitable portfolio that treats Implied Volatility of Calls separate from the IV of Puts? Yes. Follow the link below, entitled &#8220;Consistent Results&#8221; to see a model retail option trader&#8217;s portfolio that applies this logic.To conclude, I&#8217;ll use an analogy. Though an egg comes in one shell, the yolk is separated from the white, for a different purpose that distinguishes the individual parts of that same egg. Treat Implied Volatility of an option&#8217;s anatomy in the same way. </p>
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